Zuko definitely wins against F1 Elsa. She gets stopped by normal people with The Engaged Elf Matching Family Group Christmas Pajama shirt. Zuko’s Firebending, martial skills, and tactics will get the win easily. Frozen 2 Elsa is a lot harder but I definitely think that he could do it if he’s smart. He would have to rely heavily on surprise to sneak in and capture her without giving her a shot to respond, and even then I think he might be able to make a deal by capturing Anna and gang and proposing a trade. I don’t think she’s beyond losing to anyone from the Avatar verse, but she would be extremely powerful. I think she would lose to the Avatar State easily, and almost definitely against a high-power firebender during sozin’s comet.
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The way I see it, Elsa has Avatar+ capabilities but only understands a fraction of The Engaged Elf Matching Family Group Christmas Pajama shirt and some of the spiritual requirements of the Avatar. I think if Zuko was taken off guard and she had a chance to train in other elements like we see in ATLAB, he stands no chance. She has incredible feats of waterbending and never trained or had a formal master. This is on top of repressing her bending for almost 2 decades because unalike in a water tribe, her powers were never embraced.
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I’d say if they are all in character Zuko sweeps. Especially if his mission is a The Engaged Elf Matching Family Group Christmas Pajama shirt. Bloodlusted though Elsa stomps. She just doesn’t have the proclivity to be a combatant in character. If she had it in her to kill, I don’t think Zuko would stand a chance. He captures her quite easily. Now actually getting her back to the fire nation may be problematic, but I think eventually Zuko would succeed on his own. Throw in Iroh and he could probably talk Elsa into coming with them.