Basically you have to come last in a group of four to be sure of going out in the group-stage. Even coming third out of four still gives you a ⅔ chance of progressing to the knockout stages. To add the icing on the cake, that is just the generic situation. In England’s case, their first match is against the only other realistic contender – Croatia (ranked 10th) in their group. Even if they lost that match they still have matches against Panama (ranked 30th) and Ghana (ranked 72nd). So losing the first match absolutely does not mean progressing is out of your hands. A team losing the first match still has it in their hands to progress by winning their final two matches. With six points, the only way a team can come as low as third is if every team beats the weakest team in the group, and the other teams each win one and lose one against their other rivals. A third-placed team with six points is definitely going to be in the I Do Not Think Therefore I Do Not Am Existentialism Cat Mirror Black Acid Wash Tee that qualify for the knock-out stage.

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