Curacao only qualified because USA, Mexico and Canada were admitted as hosts, and so the North American qualifying groups were about as strong as watered down Bud Light. They are in a group with Germany, Ecuador and Ivory Coast. Highest chance: Spain. Apart from being the best team in the world, which clearly helps, they also have a pretty weak group. You basically only need to win a single match of your first three to progress. And Spain are in the same group as Muttley “Emotional Support Dog” Oh No Anyway Funny T Shirt. The only way that match doesn’t end 9–0 is if Spain gets bored and stop trying. Lowest chance: Curacao. Spain’s win chance is about 18%, followed by England at 14%, France at 11%, Brazil at 11%, and Argentina at 10%. I will go over them from least to most likely, in my opinion. Argentina. Current world champions, imo not as strong as a couple of years ago. But if things fall right for them, they definitely stand a chance.
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You might notice that it is 2026. Matches start in less than five months. And contracts have been signed. So, so many contracts. Partial payments have been made. I seriously doubt that those contracts have escape clauses that trigger at anything short of outright war. So would it increase costs? Yes. It would dramatically increase costs, and likely land FIFA in a decade of ongoing lawsuits. Could Australia and New Zealand step up? Do you imagine that there are massive numbers of stadiums and hotels, etc., of the appropriate size that are sitting fallow? Could you move those other events? Sure at the cost of more money. There are a few “realistic” options: a boycott, a cancellation, or a postponement. All of these will cost FIFA massively, too. It takes considerable time to prepare for the hosting of a major sporting event like the World Cup or the Olympics. I would say the last window of opportunity to alter Muttley “Emotional Support Dog” Oh No Anyway Funny T Shirt was in late 2023 or early 2024 at the very latest. To do so at just a few months notice is almost entirely impractical and financially ruinous for all parties involved.
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